A matter of interpretation: 2012 or 2013

For those who are in haste and cannot wait to shunt their honourable member as soon as practicable, 2012 cannot come soon enough. But not so fast, these so called honourable members have some pressing matters that they are most keen to accomplish and you guessed it 2012 is too soon and a 2013 general election would be much more in fitting with the grand plans that they have for their electors or is that would be tormentors?

The electorate by and large seem set for 2012 but their representatives are not as keen. But if it be that democracy is the rule of the people by the people for the people; why there be such a misalignment of interests? Who shall save us from this predicament? Thankfully, for anyone who has forgotten or wasn’t paying attention, the enactment of the new constitution is set to hugely inconvenience those accustomed to the status quo. But the incumbents are seeking a last hurrah, as they seek to exploit any chink in the armoury of the new constitutional settlement. The question is, do they have the proverbial leg to stand on?

Well sort of:

SIXTH SCHEDULE (Article 262) TRANSITIONAL AND CONSEQUENTIAL PROVISIONS PART 3, SECTION 9(1)

States that:

“The first elections for the President, the National Assembly, the Senate, county assemblies and county governors under this Constitution shall be held at the same time, within sixty days after the dissolution of the National Assembly at the end of its term”

The question then becomes what is the term of the National Assembly?

The 2013ners argue that the term of the National Assembly is 5 years from the date when members of parliament were sworn in. This means that from 15 January 2008, the term would expire on 15 January 2013. The elections would follow 60 days later i.e. some time in March 2013.

A few hurdles to overcome with this line of argument:

· Looking back historically, there is unlikely to be a National Assembly that lasted 5 years weakening the 5 year term argument

· Chapter 8 Part 2, 102(1) which the transitional provisions (Part 1, S2(1) provides that it is applicable to the first general election states that: “The term of each House of Parliament expires on the date of the next general election”.

Applying this provision, the expiry of the term of this Parliament will be determined by the date of the next general election as opposed to a reference to ‘5 year term’ which is hard to substantiate.

And therefore the date of the next election is as stipulated in the constitution i.e. Chapter 8 Part 2 S101(1): “A general election of members of Parliament shall be held on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year”. The election would therefore take place 60 days from this date i.e. some time in November 2012.

But it would seem a bit curious to use the provision in Chapter 8 Part 2 S101(1) to determine the term of this Parliament. More so because of the addition of 60 days to the setting of the election date.

· However, S9(2) appears to anticipate that in the normal course of things the general election would be held in 2012.

Though I am inclined to think the constitution sought to set an August 2012 date, the conclusion has to be that the drafters of the constitution left us with a situation as clear as mud which is negligent for such a critical event in the roll out of the new constitution.

I would opine that the Supreme Court might go with strict interpretation (August 2012) or pragmatic interpretation (March 2013) in light delays due to glitches in the implementation of the new constitution and in both instances they would have a leg to stand on.

The Politics of Tribe

Tribe has been at the heart our politics right from day one of self-government. Tribal loyalties have ensured that objective debate is nigh impossible as most political arguments inevitably turn tribal. This state of affairs has proved to be a safe haven for political 'villains' and a sure get out of jail free card for many a deviant politician.

The politics of tribe reared its ugly head in the last elections and brought our beloved country to the brink. At this time when the country was at the precipice, there emerged a consensus that tribe is truly our archilles heel (as if we didn't know it before). It is truly incredible that such a catastrophic turn of events was necessary to lead us to this 'realization'.

In light of the goings on in the political arena, little seems to have changed, the realization was only momentary and we are back to politics as usual, and unfortunately in Kenya that means the politics of tribe.
Instead of focusing on the immediate problems facing the country, 2012 chatter seems to interest politicians more than anything else. Everyone seems to be positioning themselves for a slice of political glory and tribal arithmetics are always the key factor in these machinations.

The IDP's have not even been resettled and politicians have the nerve to talk about elections. There should be a law against such mindless self-indulgence in the face of wide-spread suffering of a populace that just wanted to participate in peaceful elections.

Now, what's the point of this rant? It was really triggered by the justification offered by the Planning Minister on why Kenyans need to state their tribes in the forthcoming census. He stated that “ the census is aimed at helping the government in planning for realization of Vision 2030” .

I am no expert on this matter but I think tribe is irrelevant to planning and realising Vision 2030 objectives. The developmental needs of a Luo, Luhya, Kikuyu, Kalenjin etc are identical as far as I'm concerned (not a particularly ground breaking thought). I don't think different tribes have disparate developmental needs.

I would love to hear a more substantive justification for the need for tribal statistics because the cursory one provided by the minister does not wash. In any case I don't think there is any justification for tribal statistics in light of the position that our country finds itself in.

I admit that it may be interesting for purely statistical purposes to know the tribal constitution of the population but this can only be done in an atmosphere of political maturity where tribe is a non-issue.

Until such maturity is attained, tribe should be off struck off from the census questions!

A Good Idea is Great But ..........

CDF - an idea after my own heart

Who can fault the idea? Take taxpayer's money; take central government bureacracy out of the equation; spend the money on projects that are considered a priority by the constituents. What's not to like?

But the implementation side of the equation is the weak link. Some might argue that with time we will get it right. But how many millions (or billions) do we have to lose in this learning process.

The little I have heard about the CDF audit procedures inspires little confidence. Though it might sound like a great idea to have MP's at the heart of the CDF, (accountability etc etc) it is a big flaw until such a time as the politics of our MP's matures to justify such responsibility. Unless we rethink the role of an MP in the CDF and inject some professionalism in the management of the fund, we will not realise the true potential of this novel idea.

If the situation goes unchecked, and with increased budgetary allocation, scandals of the past might pale in comparison. A novel idea is in danger of becoming yet another black hole and a pillar of political patronage.

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure

I recall writing an article arguing that this is the policy prescription needed in Kenya. I've therefore been excited to see that the current government has put infrastructure at the core of its development agenda.

I also had the opportunity to experience this policy firsthand in my last trip to Jamhuri. As I turned onto that dreaded bit of road where tarmac was extinct and the potholes had long become gulleys, I was pleasantly surprised when I found myself cruising at 70kph. At first I thought it was down to the brand new shock absorbers that had been fitted that morning but after a while the penny dropped and alas the road had regained some of its long lost glory.

This is a tale repeated on different roads in the country and since I am not a 'see no good' observer of our politics, I was greatly encouraged by these developments.

But this is Kenya, there is always a but. The roads in my rural area had been retarmacked to a standard that was far below most other roads in the country. The key question becomes, was the same amount of money paid to the contractor? As far as I could gather, the contractor received no less than the contractors retarmacking other roads.
If this is so then another good idea has been lost in implementation and if the matter is not addressed we will end up with massive infrastructure expenditure with little infrastructure to show for it.

Welfare

What's wrong with cushioning the very poor in society to lift their standard of life? Can't fault the gist of the idea but.....

Can this work in a country where a majority of the population could probably be defined as poor?
Can the country afford it?
How do you implement such a massive programme in a country with such poor systems, procedures and controls?
This has the hallmarks of a massive embezzlement written all over it and yet if the PM gets his way it looks set to be implemented.

Oh well, another good idea that will yield a disappointing outcome.

What can I say....

The danger of good ideas implemented through flawed frameworks is potent. Since we have had such a dearth of good ideas, we are overly excited by the proposition of a good idea and overlook the crucial implementation element. Unless we catch onto this and fast, we will be mourning yet another decade of missed opportunities.

The lesson is simple, without good and robust procedures, systems and checks; good policy ideas are more dangerous than bad ones since we can object to the latter from the outset but with the former, we are only wiser after the horse has bolted.

Are Own Goals Inevitable?

As talks enter the 'too hot to handle' phase I wonder whether PNU & ODM can defend without scoring own goals.

PNU defence

ODM shoot from the hip (predictably) stating the the presidential election was flawed, rigged etc etc.

PNU counter furiously (predictably), the flaws, rigging etc etc were not one sided only that we beat you to it (latter bit for PNU ears only)

Now is PNU conceding that there were flaws, there was rigging? Would it not follow that you cannot say Mwai won fair and square in a free and fair election? Should we then not get rid of the flaws and have a free and fair election?

ODM defence

PNU will query if the ECK was so incompetent, didn't sound like they could do a thing right why stop at the presidential bit? Was the parliamentary election bit fair because you faired quite well?

I remember one Karua as well as some PNU bigwigs coming up with this line. That does throw a spanner in the works and means that ODM has some defending to do.

Pre-match (or is it mid-match) analysis

Who has a better defence? If I had to bet, I would put my money on ODM scoring more than PNU, but that pre-supposes fair play and good sportsmanship.

So when you throw in the scrapping & rough play, the smart money would probably have to be on PNU. They will probably grind out a draw or better and the post-match analysis will be ODM had such potential but on match day that was not enough for a win.

The referee

What does he have to keep the players in check? I guess in this game there is no yellow its either red or red - stating 'he/they/she led to collapse of the talks'. That would be a terrible indictment on anyone and both sides will want to avoid that characterisation. However minor misdemeanours are therefore to be expected as players will push the boundaries whenever they can.

Annan must be wondering whether he's bitten a bit more than he can chew as this lot are just out of this world.

Good luck Ref

From Zero to Nothingness

I've never been much of a Kalonzo fan, I have never felt like there is anything that he has done that would inspire me into believing that he is a man who can provide Kenya with the visionary & decisive leadership that the country requires to move to the next level.
Last year this was an opinion that I held but which I found a bit difficult to justify. However as we ushered in the new year I felt highly vindicated in my opinion. Now I would say I believe Kalonzo definitely does not have the requisite qualities and I will be surprised if he surpasses the vice-presidency in terms of political achievements (unless of course Mwai is summoned by our maker prematurely).

So why do I have such a low estimation of this 'Son of Mwingi'?

As I observed earlier, part of it has been to do with the fact that there is nothing that I can point to in order to say, yes this is the man. But now I have no doubt in my mind that I can state emphatically, no he is not the man.

On a personal level I believe that you have to be a fool not to learn from history; more so when it's recent history. You fool me once fine, you fool me twice, damn me. And this is the key reason my opinion of Kalonzo has vanished to nearly a point of no redemption.
I look back to 2002, NARC, the hopes, the aspirations and the euphoria that came with it. How Kenya's dream was strangled by greed, selfishness and opportunism. The unceremonious manner in which LDP were shoved out of a government that they had fought for tooth and nail while Mwai was in a wheel chair. They do say forgive and forget but it pays to forgive but not to forget.
Kenyans forgave in as much as they did not resort to any unorthodox means to express their disappoitment as they watched in consternation as their dream was turned into a nightmare with arrogance & impunity. But they did not forget, they penned that critical date in their dairies, in late December 2007.

Because they did not forget they turned up in large numbers on that date and said we do not like dream snuffers. In many voices they said 'we are going to dream again'. But alas their dream was to turn into a nightmare sooner than they could say 'we have a dream'. Kenyans immediately said 'we forgave, we did not forget and we are not fools'. My post 'the crisis - what went wrong' suffices on my take on the events after Kenyans cast their votes. Here I want to dwell on the critical decisions that the 'Son of Mwingi' made.

Now back to the 'man of the moment'. Whilst Kenyans were forgiving but not forgetting I would imagine Kalonzo opted for the forgive and forget philosophy.
He chose to forget that Kenyans had high hopes for Kenya which were dashed by sheer self-interest, he chose to forget that this self-interest had resulted in the team effort of December 2002 being binned, he chose to forget that this self-interest had resulted in the breaking of an agreement.

Now how does he go ahead and canoodle with this same person? Okay, okay, you can't fault a man too much for having a forgiving heart, that would be too harsh though I do question his sense of judgement.
It is Kalonzo's right to chose whatever path he wants to take but my gripe is the circumstances under which he chose to forgive and forget.

Kalonzo had a unique opportunity to curve himself a place in the history of our country, it would have cost him very little yet it would have earned him so much. But he chose to conveniently hear no evil and see no evil. He made all the right noises but crucially made all the wrong choices.
Initially, I was a bit perturbed to hear that ODM-Kenya played their part in pressuring for release of the disputed presidential results. Kalonzo was clearly not in the race so why not just sit out and be neutral? But with hindsight it makes a lot of sense. Clearly this was pre-meditated support for Kibaki. I ask myself when did this man decide yet again 'Kibaki Tosha'? Was it when he realised he was a distant third? Was it when he realised he wasn't going to get the LDP nomination? Could it be earlier? I do not know. That is anyone's guess.

Still I do not fault a man for having a forgiving heart, it is the circumstances under which he did it, and the manner of it that disgusts me. Kalonzo decided to be politically expedient and take a position that would offer him the most political leverage. But in doing so he dealt a big blow to democracy (and his advocacy of it) by endorsing a manifestly flawed presidential vote.
Still I do not fault a man for seeking political leverage, it is the circumstances under which he did it that leave me hoping he ends up in political oblivion as a tribal chieftan.

The last straw came when he declared there was no question on who won the presidential election, this after the man who oversaw the election said he couldn't say for sure who won. Did he have so much ill feeling towards Raila to stoop this low?
Still I do not fault a man for wanting to get one back at his archrival, it is the circumstances under which he did it.

After this catalogue of short term, ill-advised decision making, I believe that the 'Son of Mwingi' has proved to me beyond reasonable doubt that he does not have the vision and decisiveness to lead Kenya out of the wilderness and into the promised land.

What does it benefit a man to gain the Vice presidency but lose all respect?

Amen.

Can we transcend tribe? Will Annan succeed?

Eyes but you can't see? Ears but you can't hear? What use are you?

In looking at the current crisis the fact that Kibaki's supporters have decided to adopt a hear no evil, see no evil attitude is part of the wider problem. It is in the interest of every kenyan that justice prevails at all times since as saying goes leo ni wewe, kesho ni mimi. Yesterday it was Moi, today it is Kibaki and as sure as the sun will set, tomorrow it would have been someone else. Kibaki's supporters have done a great disservice to Kenya's democracy by failing to acknowledge the flaws which were patently obvious. Anyway we are where we are and hopefully politicians will get the message that you cannot screw Kenyans for five years and when they cast their verdict you ignore it; it simply won't fly. And I hope those who have chosen to see no evil will take time to reflect on how their passive endorsement of a fraudulent election has got us to where we are.

And as Kenya sinks deeper into a crisis whose direction or ultimate destination is anyone's guess, I am amazed that we seem unable to view things from a Kenyan lense and still persist to clutch onto our tribal goggles.
The fact that we can be unsympathetic to the plight of a fellow kenyan because they are from the 'wrong' tribe is truly tragic. As various groups square up in various parts of the country it has been curious to observe that politicians have seemed to think there is a problem with violence against innocent people when 'their' people come under attack. How can we sink so low that even when the country is teetering on the brink, tribe still seems to be the primary compass that is guiding most people.

I hope

-The 4 weeks set to resolve the crisis is not too long and violence subsides
-Politicians will put Kenya before personal interests.
-We will emerge out of this not only with the urgently needed short term but also long term solutions.
-No targeted political killings that could scupper the talks occur (not that any one life is of more value than the next but the consequences are not the same).
-Kenyans will somehow manage to see beyond tribe.

I fear

-The 4 weeks may be too long as the violence is taking on a momentum of it's own.
-Criminal elements are going to take advantage of the current situation to wreck havoc.
-The ODM-Kenya and PNU marriage of convenience complicates matters.
-Politicians will continue grandstanding even in the serious crisis we are in to make political points.
-There is no political goodwill and particularly on the government side '..duly elected...' '...go to courts...' mantra.
-Someone is buying time and is going to throw a big spanner in the works.
-Melitus Were may be the first but not the last(God forbid).
-The longer this goes on, the more tribe will become a strong symbol of identity.

Aside

Have the police just got delivery of rubber bullets?

I ask for what? and I say move on I must.

I have had perhaps the most unproductive 3 weeks that I can ever remember. My mind, my emotions and what has felt like my life have been held hostage by a bunch of arrogant, insensitive and self-seeking politicians. For what?

It is debilitating to be so far away and yet be so concerned about events in Kenya particularly because it is extremely hard to gauge how bad things really are. There are all sorts of news flashes, headlines and such irresponsible discussions on the web that are guaranteed to leave one confused and emotionally drained. And after all this, when I make my can never come too soon phone call to Kenya for a dose of recent update because someone is in a relatively calm area they talk of violence in ‘far-away areas’ and I read very little concern in the content of what they say and the non-reconcilliatory tone of it. Again I ask myself for what?

Now I go further and ask myself, are Kibaki, Michuki & co losing sleep over the mess they have created? Are Raila, Ruto & co losing sleep over where the country could be heading? I doubt it going by the smiles they flash as they come out of their bonding sessions. Again I ask myself for what?
So I ask myself why should I remain captive to individuals who are wining and dining as if it’s business as usual.

Since I have the benefit of being far removed from the situation, I have the luxury of moving on and I have decided to break from my captivity and move on despite the defeatist tone of it.

For myriad reasons move on i ought, must, should and will because my 3 weeks of not moving on have yielded little for my beloved country or me. So move on I will.

I am distressed that democracy has been dealt a big blow in an exercise meant to enhance it.

My heart bleeds for the bereaved and the displaced. On a personal level I can only contribute in whatever way I can to aid those who find themselves captives in a literal sense.

My God grant justice to those who have suffered injustices.