A Good Idea is Great But ..........

CDF - an idea after my own heart

Who can fault the idea? Take taxpayer's money; take central government bureacracy out of the equation; spend the money on projects that are considered a priority by the constituents. What's not to like?

But the implementation side of the equation is the weak link. Some might argue that with time we will get it right. But how many millions (or billions) do we have to lose in this learning process.

The little I have heard about the CDF audit procedures inspires little confidence. Though it might sound like a great idea to have MP's at the heart of the CDF, (accountability etc etc) it is a big flaw until such a time as the politics of our MP's matures to justify such responsibility. Unless we rethink the role of an MP in the CDF and inject some professionalism in the management of the fund, we will not realise the true potential of this novel idea.

If the situation goes unchecked, and with increased budgetary allocation, scandals of the past might pale in comparison. A novel idea is in danger of becoming yet another black hole and a pillar of political patronage.

Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure

I recall writing an article arguing that this is the policy prescription needed in Kenya. I've therefore been excited to see that the current government has put infrastructure at the core of its development agenda.

I also had the opportunity to experience this policy firsthand in my last trip to Jamhuri. As I turned onto that dreaded bit of road where tarmac was extinct and the potholes had long become gulleys, I was pleasantly surprised when I found myself cruising at 70kph. At first I thought it was down to the brand new shock absorbers that had been fitted that morning but after a while the penny dropped and alas the road had regained some of its long lost glory.

This is a tale repeated on different roads in the country and since I am not a 'see no good' observer of our politics, I was greatly encouraged by these developments.

But this is Kenya, there is always a but. The roads in my rural area had been retarmacked to a standard that was far below most other roads in the country. The key question becomes, was the same amount of money paid to the contractor? As far as I could gather, the contractor received no less than the contractors retarmacking other roads.
If this is so then another good idea has been lost in implementation and if the matter is not addressed we will end up with massive infrastructure expenditure with little infrastructure to show for it.

Welfare

What's wrong with cushioning the very poor in society to lift their standard of life? Can't fault the gist of the idea but.....

Can this work in a country where a majority of the population could probably be defined as poor?
Can the country afford it?
How do you implement such a massive programme in a country with such poor systems, procedures and controls?
This has the hallmarks of a massive embezzlement written all over it and yet if the PM gets his way it looks set to be implemented.

Oh well, another good idea that will yield a disappointing outcome.

What can I say....

The danger of good ideas implemented through flawed frameworks is potent. Since we have had such a dearth of good ideas, we are overly excited by the proposition of a good idea and overlook the crucial implementation element. Unless we catch onto this and fast, we will be mourning yet another decade of missed opportunities.

The lesson is simple, without good and robust procedures, systems and checks; good policy ideas are more dangerous than bad ones since we can object to the latter from the outset but with the former, we are only wiser after the horse has bolted.

Are Own Goals Inevitable?

As talks enter the 'too hot to handle' phase I wonder whether PNU & ODM can defend without scoring own goals.

PNU defence

ODM shoot from the hip (predictably) stating the the presidential election was flawed, rigged etc etc.

PNU counter furiously (predictably), the flaws, rigging etc etc were not one sided only that we beat you to it (latter bit for PNU ears only)

Now is PNU conceding that there were flaws, there was rigging? Would it not follow that you cannot say Mwai won fair and square in a free and fair election? Should we then not get rid of the flaws and have a free and fair election?

ODM defence

PNU will query if the ECK was so incompetent, didn't sound like they could do a thing right why stop at the presidential bit? Was the parliamentary election bit fair because you faired quite well?

I remember one Karua as well as some PNU bigwigs coming up with this line. That does throw a spanner in the works and means that ODM has some defending to do.

Pre-match (or is it mid-match) analysis

Who has a better defence? If I had to bet, I would put my money on ODM scoring more than PNU, but that pre-supposes fair play and good sportsmanship.

So when you throw in the scrapping & rough play, the smart money would probably have to be on PNU. They will probably grind out a draw or better and the post-match analysis will be ODM had such potential but on match day that was not enough for a win.

The referee

What does he have to keep the players in check? I guess in this game there is no yellow its either red or red - stating 'he/they/she led to collapse of the talks'. That would be a terrible indictment on anyone and both sides will want to avoid that characterisation. However minor misdemeanours are therefore to be expected as players will push the boundaries whenever they can.

Annan must be wondering whether he's bitten a bit more than he can chew as this lot are just out of this world.

Good luck Ref

From Zero to Nothingness

I've never been much of a Kalonzo fan, I have never felt like there is anything that he has done that would inspire me into believing that he is a man who can provide Kenya with the visionary & decisive leadership that the country requires to move to the next level.
Last year this was an opinion that I held but which I found a bit difficult to justify. However as we ushered in the new year I felt highly vindicated in my opinion. Now I would say I believe Kalonzo definitely does not have the requisite qualities and I will be surprised if he surpasses the vice-presidency in terms of political achievements (unless of course Mwai is summoned by our maker prematurely).

So why do I have such a low estimation of this 'Son of Mwingi'?

As I observed earlier, part of it has been to do with the fact that there is nothing that I can point to in order to say, yes this is the man. But now I have no doubt in my mind that I can state emphatically, no he is not the man.

On a personal level I believe that you have to be a fool not to learn from history; more so when it's recent history. You fool me once fine, you fool me twice, damn me. And this is the key reason my opinion of Kalonzo has vanished to nearly a point of no redemption.
I look back to 2002, NARC, the hopes, the aspirations and the euphoria that came with it. How Kenya's dream was strangled by greed, selfishness and opportunism. The unceremonious manner in which LDP were shoved out of a government that they had fought for tooth and nail while Mwai was in a wheel chair. They do say forgive and forget but it pays to forgive but not to forget.
Kenyans forgave in as much as they did not resort to any unorthodox means to express their disappoitment as they watched in consternation as their dream was turned into a nightmare with arrogance & impunity. But they did not forget, they penned that critical date in their dairies, in late December 2007.

Because they did not forget they turned up in large numbers on that date and said we do not like dream snuffers. In many voices they said 'we are going to dream again'. But alas their dream was to turn into a nightmare sooner than they could say 'we have a dream'. Kenyans immediately said 'we forgave, we did not forget and we are not fools'. My post 'the crisis - what went wrong' suffices on my take on the events after Kenyans cast their votes. Here I want to dwell on the critical decisions that the 'Son of Mwingi' made.

Now back to the 'man of the moment'. Whilst Kenyans were forgiving but not forgetting I would imagine Kalonzo opted for the forgive and forget philosophy.
He chose to forget that Kenyans had high hopes for Kenya which were dashed by sheer self-interest, he chose to forget that this self-interest had resulted in the team effort of December 2002 being binned, he chose to forget that this self-interest had resulted in the breaking of an agreement.

Now how does he go ahead and canoodle with this same person? Okay, okay, you can't fault a man too much for having a forgiving heart, that would be too harsh though I do question his sense of judgement.
It is Kalonzo's right to chose whatever path he wants to take but my gripe is the circumstances under which he chose to forgive and forget.

Kalonzo had a unique opportunity to curve himself a place in the history of our country, it would have cost him very little yet it would have earned him so much. But he chose to conveniently hear no evil and see no evil. He made all the right noises but crucially made all the wrong choices.
Initially, I was a bit perturbed to hear that ODM-Kenya played their part in pressuring for release of the disputed presidential results. Kalonzo was clearly not in the race so why not just sit out and be neutral? But with hindsight it makes a lot of sense. Clearly this was pre-meditated support for Kibaki. I ask myself when did this man decide yet again 'Kibaki Tosha'? Was it when he realised he was a distant third? Was it when he realised he wasn't going to get the LDP nomination? Could it be earlier? I do not know. That is anyone's guess.

Still I do not fault a man for having a forgiving heart, it is the circumstances under which he did it, and the manner of it that disgusts me. Kalonzo decided to be politically expedient and take a position that would offer him the most political leverage. But in doing so he dealt a big blow to democracy (and his advocacy of it) by endorsing a manifestly flawed presidential vote.
Still I do not fault a man for seeking political leverage, it is the circumstances under which he did it that leave me hoping he ends up in political oblivion as a tribal chieftan.

The last straw came when he declared there was no question on who won the presidential election, this after the man who oversaw the election said he couldn't say for sure who won. Did he have so much ill feeling towards Raila to stoop this low?
Still I do not fault a man for wanting to get one back at his archrival, it is the circumstances under which he did it.

After this catalogue of short term, ill-advised decision making, I believe that the 'Son of Mwingi' has proved to me beyond reasonable doubt that he does not have the vision and decisiveness to lead Kenya out of the wilderness and into the promised land.

What does it benefit a man to gain the Vice presidency but lose all respect?

Amen.

Can we transcend tribe? Will Annan succeed?

Eyes but you can't see? Ears but you can't hear? What use are you?

In looking at the current crisis the fact that Kibaki's supporters have decided to adopt a hear no evil, see no evil attitude is part of the wider problem. It is in the interest of every kenyan that justice prevails at all times since as saying goes leo ni wewe, kesho ni mimi. Yesterday it was Moi, today it is Kibaki and as sure as the sun will set, tomorrow it would have been someone else. Kibaki's supporters have done a great disservice to Kenya's democracy by failing to acknowledge the flaws which were patently obvious. Anyway we are where we are and hopefully politicians will get the message that you cannot screw Kenyans for five years and when they cast their verdict you ignore it; it simply won't fly. And I hope those who have chosen to see no evil will take time to reflect on how their passive endorsement of a fraudulent election has got us to where we are.

And as Kenya sinks deeper into a crisis whose direction or ultimate destination is anyone's guess, I am amazed that we seem unable to view things from a Kenyan lense and still persist to clutch onto our tribal goggles.
The fact that we can be unsympathetic to the plight of a fellow kenyan because they are from the 'wrong' tribe is truly tragic. As various groups square up in various parts of the country it has been curious to observe that politicians have seemed to think there is a problem with violence against innocent people when 'their' people come under attack. How can we sink so low that even when the country is teetering on the brink, tribe still seems to be the primary compass that is guiding most people.

I hope

-The 4 weeks set to resolve the crisis is not too long and violence subsides
-Politicians will put Kenya before personal interests.
-We will emerge out of this not only with the urgently needed short term but also long term solutions.
-No targeted political killings that could scupper the talks occur (not that any one life is of more value than the next but the consequences are not the same).
-Kenyans will somehow manage to see beyond tribe.

I fear

-The 4 weeks may be too long as the violence is taking on a momentum of it's own.
-Criminal elements are going to take advantage of the current situation to wreck havoc.
-The ODM-Kenya and PNU marriage of convenience complicates matters.
-Politicians will continue grandstanding even in the serious crisis we are in to make political points.
-There is no political goodwill and particularly on the government side '..duly elected...' '...go to courts...' mantra.
-Someone is buying time and is going to throw a big spanner in the works.
-Melitus Were may be the first but not the last(God forbid).
-The longer this goes on, the more tribe will become a strong symbol of identity.

Aside

Have the police just got delivery of rubber bullets?

I ask for what? and I say move on I must.

I have had perhaps the most unproductive 3 weeks that I can ever remember. My mind, my emotions and what has felt like my life have been held hostage by a bunch of arrogant, insensitive and self-seeking politicians. For what?

It is debilitating to be so far away and yet be so concerned about events in Kenya particularly because it is extremely hard to gauge how bad things really are. There are all sorts of news flashes, headlines and such irresponsible discussions on the web that are guaranteed to leave one confused and emotionally drained. And after all this, when I make my can never come too soon phone call to Kenya for a dose of recent update because someone is in a relatively calm area they talk of violence in ‘far-away areas’ and I read very little concern in the content of what they say and the non-reconcilliatory tone of it. Again I ask myself for what?

Now I go further and ask myself, are Kibaki, Michuki & co losing sleep over the mess they have created? Are Raila, Ruto & co losing sleep over where the country could be heading? I doubt it going by the smiles they flash as they come out of their bonding sessions. Again I ask myself for what?
So I ask myself why should I remain captive to individuals who are wining and dining as if it’s business as usual.

Since I have the benefit of being far removed from the situation, I have the luxury of moving on and I have decided to break from my captivity and move on despite the defeatist tone of it.

For myriad reasons move on i ought, must, should and will because my 3 weeks of not moving on have yielded little for my beloved country or me. So move on I will.

I am distressed that democracy has been dealt a big blow in an exercise meant to enhance it.

My heart bleeds for the bereaved and the displaced. On a personal level I can only contribute in whatever way I can to aid those who find themselves captives in a literal sense.

My God grant justice to those who have suffered injustices.

The myth of the presidency

As we continue to mourn the dead and console the displaced, I hope that we will ask ourselves WTF just happened. We know the genesis of the chaos but do we really understand the manner in which fellow Kenyans have resorted to protesting a flawed election and in particular I have in mind the 'guilty by tribal affiliation phenomenon'.

The fact that in the just concluded elections 9 out of 10 times you could tell a person’s political affiliation by their names is a big shame for our country. It cannot be that everyone engaged in a dispassionate and objective analysis of what the competing parties had to offer and the tribal connection was just a coincidence. Sadly I believe Kenyans have engaged in a back to front approach when it comes to political choices. We revert to a tribal default and then work from there. The division was probably as sharp as it was because there were valid arguments for and against on both sides.

However we cannot bury our heads in the sand, we must wake up and smell the tribalism with its overpowering stench. And we must confront and challenge it if we are to take anything from this sad and horrific episode in the history of our nation. As a resolution to the crisis is sought it is extremely naïve to think that a change of guard at state house will resolve the underlying problems.
As long as tribe continues to be the key barometer in assessing our leaders; we have millions that are poor, disenfranchised and disillusioned; I believe we will never be too far away from what we are experiencing.
The fact that someone can consider attacking a neighbour whom they have lived with peacefully because of their tribal (and perceived political) affiliation, is indicative of how endemic tribalism is in our society. There have undoubtedly been a settling of old scores but even these are largely based on tribe.

It would be absolutely fantastic if the protesters on the streets of Kenya were fighting for democracy per se but unfortunately (and possibly unwittingly) they are fighting for a change of guard. The fight for democracy is a means to an end rather than an end in itself. Some might question this assertion thanks to their current political inclination but all I will do is summon history.

Was it not the Kibaki’s, the Karua’s, the Kiraitu’s, the Kibwana’s et al that were leading yesteryear’s fight for democracy? Is it not very clear that they were fighting for a change of guard rather than democracy? Once the former was achieved the latter took a back seat. Ponder that!

The key dilemma of the position that we find ourselves in is that under our current constitutional arrangement we have what seems like a winner takes all scenario. This makes the stakes look much higher than they actually are. It’s an oft-expressed opinion that a Kibaki win offers very little to 99% of Kikuyus and in the same vein a Raila win offers very little to 99% of Luos. But the myth of how beneficial it is to have a president of matching tribal affiliation persists.

So what?

We must debunk the myth of the presidency not only through civic education but also and more importantly through institutional reform. The long and short of it is that we must emasculate the presidency. There are some key reforms that we simply cannot afford to ignore because the current set up has been either a catalyst to the chaos or a hindrance to the resolution of this crisis.

Constitution
This debate has been had and there is consensus that we need a new constitution. No need to say any more.

ECK
Those three letters send shivers down my spine. That an exercise of such magnitude and importance to our nation was entrusted to them as conveniently constituted by Kibaki beggars belief and more so with hindsight.

We must simply overhaul the whole electoral system and if we could change the name even better for my spine.

Appointment of judges
It is widely accepted that we have nothing near independence in our judicial system. Here again this is old ground and the need for reform is a nobrainer.

If our judiciary was actually independent and was also seen to be independent ODM would have gone down this road and this may have saved us some of the trouble we have experienced. It simply isn’t and it is no surprise that one should feel they will not get justice from Kibaki’s recent appointees.

Appointments to public institutions
That the president should make appointments to so many public institutions is frankly ridiculers. It simply perpetuates the myth of winner takes all when we all know that the beneficiaries are a few of the president’s cronies.
Furthermore it makes it such that the appointees are not put through a rigorous appointment process and Kenyans end up with third-rate managers.

Power from the centre
We must devolve power under a new constitutional order. We must make it such that it doesn’t matter so much who is at the centre because power will be spread across the country. Please do not give me that majimbo, ugajimbo drivel, we simply need more power and resources closer to the people.

However the reform is undertaken, within or without the constitution is to my mind a detail to be worked out by those with better constitutional and legal understanding.

The politicians
At present Kibaki represents the status quo and there is little evidence that he wants to rock the boat. Therefore it will be upon Raila to push the change agenda.

Raila’s rallying motto during the campaigns was infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure which at the time is a sentiment I agreed with. But in the face of what are more pressing fundamental problems for our country, I hope he will change this to reforms, reforms, reforms, a course to which I think many Kenyas will subscribe.

Parting shot
Bottom line is that this is an ‘opportunity’ we cannot miss. The lives lost and damage done to the country must not be in vain.

We simply cannot do the same thing, using the same institutions and expect different results.
Let us wake up, smell the tribalism, the myth of the presidency and we will recognise that we all want the same thing – a better life for ourselves and our descendants and that this will not be achieved by having 'our' man in the seat of the presidency.

Undiplomatic diplomacy!

Politicians!!!

Kibaki has not disappointed (well he has but from the last sentence of my last post you get the gist) and consequently Kenyans have again been let down. As they desperately tried to focus on getting their lives back to some sort of normality, the politicians are at it again and Kenyans are probably going to pay dearly for their petulance.

I have to say I do not envy the position Raila finds himself in. He is literally caught between a rock and a hard place.

To his core supporters if Raila accepts anything short of a re-run of the presidential elections, he has failed them. I am of the opinion that this is highly likely to materialise.
As I stated earlier I think the best that Raila could have come out with under the circumstances is a coalition government which does not cast Kibaki as victor. However from recent developments it is clear that Kibaki regards himself as rightfully victorious and therefore sees no need to make any significant concessions.

Concessions

ODM have come some way from their initial position that Kibaki must resign before any talks could commence.

Kibaki in reality has conceded very little if anything. From the beginning he had always talked of a government of national unity. This is not much of a concession since parliamentary numbers would have forced him down this route anyway.

Diplomacy

I do not know what ODM offered as a solution to the political stalemate but on the face of it I am inclined to think they wanted to have a real go at resolving the current stalemate through negotiations.

Kibaki on his part clearly never thought much of such diplomacy evidenced by:

• Stating there was no need for an international mediator from the word go
• Naming cabinet (albeit half) just before talks
• Attempting to poach ODM MP’s

As I observed earlier Raila had very little to offer in order to act as a catalyst to the diplomatic efforts; it was all down to Kibaki and from his actions above it is clear he wasn’t that interested.

Who's fooling who?

As details emerge of the shenanigans that were the negotiations aimed at resolving the worst crisis to face our nation in recent times someone is playing silly games and it's time everyone started to act like they have a grasp of the gravity of the situation.

Either Kibaki & Co knew of the infamous document and it's content or they didn't; and it follows that either ODM or PNU is playing games.

It's time all involved start acting their age and stopped holding millions of Kenyans at ransom.

What now?

In Kibaki's Kenya it seems anything is possible. The politicians are busy pursuing power whilst Kenyans continue to sufffer.