Can we transcend tribe? Will Annan succeed?

Eyes but you can't see? Ears but you can't hear? What use are you?

In looking at the current crisis the fact that Kibaki's supporters have decided to adopt a hear no evil, see no evil attitude is part of the wider problem. It is in the interest of every kenyan that justice prevails at all times since as saying goes leo ni wewe, kesho ni mimi. Yesterday it was Moi, today it is Kibaki and as sure as the sun will set, tomorrow it would have been someone else. Kibaki's supporters have done a great disservice to Kenya's democracy by failing to acknowledge the flaws which were patently obvious. Anyway we are where we are and hopefully politicians will get the message that you cannot screw Kenyans for five years and when they cast their verdict you ignore it; it simply won't fly. And I hope those who have chosen to see no evil will take time to reflect on how their passive endorsement of a fraudulent election has got us to where we are.

And as Kenya sinks deeper into a crisis whose direction or ultimate destination is anyone's guess, I am amazed that we seem unable to view things from a Kenyan lense and still persist to clutch onto our tribal goggles.
The fact that we can be unsympathetic to the plight of a fellow kenyan because they are from the 'wrong' tribe is truly tragic. As various groups square up in various parts of the country it has been curious to observe that politicians have seemed to think there is a problem with violence against innocent people when 'their' people come under attack. How can we sink so low that even when the country is teetering on the brink, tribe still seems to be the primary compass that is guiding most people.

I hope

-The 4 weeks set to resolve the crisis is not too long and violence subsides
-Politicians will put Kenya before personal interests.
-We will emerge out of this not only with the urgently needed short term but also long term solutions.
-No targeted political killings that could scupper the talks occur (not that any one life is of more value than the next but the consequences are not the same).
-Kenyans will somehow manage to see beyond tribe.

I fear

-The 4 weeks may be too long as the violence is taking on a momentum of it's own.
-Criminal elements are going to take advantage of the current situation to wreck havoc.
-The ODM-Kenya and PNU marriage of convenience complicates matters.
-Politicians will continue grandstanding even in the serious crisis we are in to make political points.
-There is no political goodwill and particularly on the government side '..duly elected...' '...go to courts...' mantra.
-Someone is buying time and is going to throw a big spanner in the works.
-Melitus Were may be the first but not the last(God forbid).
-The longer this goes on, the more tribe will become a strong symbol of identity.

Aside

Have the police just got delivery of rubber bullets?

I ask for what? and I say move on I must.

I have had perhaps the most unproductive 3 weeks that I can ever remember. My mind, my emotions and what has felt like my life have been held hostage by a bunch of arrogant, insensitive and self-seeking politicians. For what?

It is debilitating to be so far away and yet be so concerned about events in Kenya particularly because it is extremely hard to gauge how bad things really are. There are all sorts of news flashes, headlines and such irresponsible discussions on the web that are guaranteed to leave one confused and emotionally drained. And after all this, when I make my can never come too soon phone call to Kenya for a dose of recent update because someone is in a relatively calm area they talk of violence in ‘far-away areas’ and I read very little concern in the content of what they say and the non-reconcilliatory tone of it. Again I ask myself for what?

Now I go further and ask myself, are Kibaki, Michuki & co losing sleep over the mess they have created? Are Raila, Ruto & co losing sleep over where the country could be heading? I doubt it going by the smiles they flash as they come out of their bonding sessions. Again I ask myself for what?
So I ask myself why should I remain captive to individuals who are wining and dining as if it’s business as usual.

Since I have the benefit of being far removed from the situation, I have the luxury of moving on and I have decided to break from my captivity and move on despite the defeatist tone of it.

For myriad reasons move on i ought, must, should and will because my 3 weeks of not moving on have yielded little for my beloved country or me. So move on I will.

I am distressed that democracy has been dealt a big blow in an exercise meant to enhance it.

My heart bleeds for the bereaved and the displaced. On a personal level I can only contribute in whatever way I can to aid those who find themselves captives in a literal sense.

My God grant justice to those who have suffered injustices.

The myth of the presidency

As we continue to mourn the dead and console the displaced, I hope that we will ask ourselves WTF just happened. We know the genesis of the chaos but do we really understand the manner in which fellow Kenyans have resorted to protesting a flawed election and in particular I have in mind the 'guilty by tribal affiliation phenomenon'.

The fact that in the just concluded elections 9 out of 10 times you could tell a person’s political affiliation by their names is a big shame for our country. It cannot be that everyone engaged in a dispassionate and objective analysis of what the competing parties had to offer and the tribal connection was just a coincidence. Sadly I believe Kenyans have engaged in a back to front approach when it comes to political choices. We revert to a tribal default and then work from there. The division was probably as sharp as it was because there were valid arguments for and against on both sides.

However we cannot bury our heads in the sand, we must wake up and smell the tribalism with its overpowering stench. And we must confront and challenge it if we are to take anything from this sad and horrific episode in the history of our nation. As a resolution to the crisis is sought it is extremely naïve to think that a change of guard at state house will resolve the underlying problems.
As long as tribe continues to be the key barometer in assessing our leaders; we have millions that are poor, disenfranchised and disillusioned; I believe we will never be too far away from what we are experiencing.
The fact that someone can consider attacking a neighbour whom they have lived with peacefully because of their tribal (and perceived political) affiliation, is indicative of how endemic tribalism is in our society. There have undoubtedly been a settling of old scores but even these are largely based on tribe.

It would be absolutely fantastic if the protesters on the streets of Kenya were fighting for democracy per se but unfortunately (and possibly unwittingly) they are fighting for a change of guard. The fight for democracy is a means to an end rather than an end in itself. Some might question this assertion thanks to their current political inclination but all I will do is summon history.

Was it not the Kibaki’s, the Karua’s, the Kiraitu’s, the Kibwana’s et al that were leading yesteryear’s fight for democracy? Is it not very clear that they were fighting for a change of guard rather than democracy? Once the former was achieved the latter took a back seat. Ponder that!

The key dilemma of the position that we find ourselves in is that under our current constitutional arrangement we have what seems like a winner takes all scenario. This makes the stakes look much higher than they actually are. It’s an oft-expressed opinion that a Kibaki win offers very little to 99% of Kikuyus and in the same vein a Raila win offers very little to 99% of Luos. But the myth of how beneficial it is to have a president of matching tribal affiliation persists.

So what?

We must debunk the myth of the presidency not only through civic education but also and more importantly through institutional reform. The long and short of it is that we must emasculate the presidency. There are some key reforms that we simply cannot afford to ignore because the current set up has been either a catalyst to the chaos or a hindrance to the resolution of this crisis.

Constitution
This debate has been had and there is consensus that we need a new constitution. No need to say any more.

ECK
Those three letters send shivers down my spine. That an exercise of such magnitude and importance to our nation was entrusted to them as conveniently constituted by Kibaki beggars belief and more so with hindsight.

We must simply overhaul the whole electoral system and if we could change the name even better for my spine.

Appointment of judges
It is widely accepted that we have nothing near independence in our judicial system. Here again this is old ground and the need for reform is a nobrainer.

If our judiciary was actually independent and was also seen to be independent ODM would have gone down this road and this may have saved us some of the trouble we have experienced. It simply isn’t and it is no surprise that one should feel they will not get justice from Kibaki’s recent appointees.

Appointments to public institutions
That the president should make appointments to so many public institutions is frankly ridiculers. It simply perpetuates the myth of winner takes all when we all know that the beneficiaries are a few of the president’s cronies.
Furthermore it makes it such that the appointees are not put through a rigorous appointment process and Kenyans end up with third-rate managers.

Power from the centre
We must devolve power under a new constitutional order. We must make it such that it doesn’t matter so much who is at the centre because power will be spread across the country. Please do not give me that majimbo, ugajimbo drivel, we simply need more power and resources closer to the people.

However the reform is undertaken, within or without the constitution is to my mind a detail to be worked out by those with better constitutional and legal understanding.

The politicians
At present Kibaki represents the status quo and there is little evidence that he wants to rock the boat. Therefore it will be upon Raila to push the change agenda.

Raila’s rallying motto during the campaigns was infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure which at the time is a sentiment I agreed with. But in the face of what are more pressing fundamental problems for our country, I hope he will change this to reforms, reforms, reforms, a course to which I think many Kenyas will subscribe.

Parting shot
Bottom line is that this is an ‘opportunity’ we cannot miss. The lives lost and damage done to the country must not be in vain.

We simply cannot do the same thing, using the same institutions and expect different results.
Let us wake up, smell the tribalism, the myth of the presidency and we will recognise that we all want the same thing – a better life for ourselves and our descendants and that this will not be achieved by having 'our' man in the seat of the presidency.

Undiplomatic diplomacy!

Politicians!!!

Kibaki has not disappointed (well he has but from the last sentence of my last post you get the gist) and consequently Kenyans have again been let down. As they desperately tried to focus on getting their lives back to some sort of normality, the politicians are at it again and Kenyans are probably going to pay dearly for their petulance.

I have to say I do not envy the position Raila finds himself in. He is literally caught between a rock and a hard place.

To his core supporters if Raila accepts anything short of a re-run of the presidential elections, he has failed them. I am of the opinion that this is highly likely to materialise.
As I stated earlier I think the best that Raila could have come out with under the circumstances is a coalition government which does not cast Kibaki as victor. However from recent developments it is clear that Kibaki regards himself as rightfully victorious and therefore sees no need to make any significant concessions.

Concessions

ODM have come some way from their initial position that Kibaki must resign before any talks could commence.

Kibaki in reality has conceded very little if anything. From the beginning he had always talked of a government of national unity. This is not much of a concession since parliamentary numbers would have forced him down this route anyway.

Diplomacy

I do not know what ODM offered as a solution to the political stalemate but on the face of it I am inclined to think they wanted to have a real go at resolving the current stalemate through negotiations.

Kibaki on his part clearly never thought much of such diplomacy evidenced by:

• Stating there was no need for an international mediator from the word go
• Naming cabinet (albeit half) just before talks
• Attempting to poach ODM MP’s

As I observed earlier Raila had very little to offer in order to act as a catalyst to the diplomatic efforts; it was all down to Kibaki and from his actions above it is clear he wasn’t that interested.

Who's fooling who?

As details emerge of the shenanigans that were the negotiations aimed at resolving the worst crisis to face our nation in recent times someone is playing silly games and it's time everyone started to act like they have a grasp of the gravity of the situation.

Either Kibaki & Co knew of the infamous document and it's content or they didn't; and it follows that either ODM or PNU is playing games.

It's time all involved start acting their age and stopped holding millions of Kenyans at ransom.

What now?

In Kibaki's Kenya it seems anything is possible. The politicians are busy pursuing power whilst Kenyans continue to sufffer.

Kenya in crisis - what is the way forward?

As highlighted in my earlier post at this time of crisis, leadership has been in short supply on both sides. I will not ask for what they have proved incapable of, but to demand like every concerned kenyan that the politicians find a political solution to the crisis.

What are the options:

Retally votes

• had Kiviuitu & Co had an iota of sense the whole crisis would have been pre-empted.
• had Kibaki been a real leader with interests of Kenya at heart he would have pushed for this when it was a realistic solution.
  

To even suggest it now is lunacy.

Re-run of presidential election

This would go a long way in resolving the current crisis and is favoured by ODM but

• PNU will only accept this if ordered by the courts (well most read 'will never happen')
• What of all the misplaced people? Most of them have lost everything bar the clothes they were wearing (pretty significant at 250k and probably more - more than the winning margin).
• Who would preside over the elections? What changes would be made to ensure that the will of the people prevails?
• The cost of such an exercise when the economy has suffered so much due to post-election violence
• It is fair to assume that the voting would be along the same tribal lines and probably more polarised.

Given the above challenges I doubt whether a swift re-run of the presidential election is a viable solution. But more fundamentally, I do not believe that whatever the outcome of such a re-run the deep tribal divisions that have emerged would be significantly diminished.

Government of national unity

What does this entail? Since Kibaki set a precedent with an earlier government of national unity, it is not unreasonable to assume that he has in mind dishing out various posts to ODM.
Judging by the manner in which the NARC administration disintegrated, I am dubious about the potential for success here. Furthermore I do not think ODM would be agreeable to such an arrangement since it casts Kibaki as victor in a race which the winner is in doubt.

Given that the two candidates offered radically different visions of what path Kenya should take over the next five years, one does not need to a crystal ball to see the tugging that would ensue.

Coalition government

What form would this take? As far as I am aware we have no precedent in the Kenyan context and I think it would be dependent on what both parties find to be agreeable.

As unsatisfactory as this may seem, after passions have dissipated on both sides (as they have evidently done thus far) this may emerge as the best solution for Kenya as a nation.

My reason for saying this is because after the post-election violence we will have to pick up somewhere and rebuild our country. If this role is undertaken by ODM there will undoubtedly be constant antagonism from PNU ranks and vice versa. If either party takes over executive power unilaterally we are guaranteed 5 years of divisive politics and we will all be losers.

The most important thing is that the coalition agreement should be well crafted to ensure that it is robust enough to see us through what will undoubtedly be a trying 5 years for our country. The presence of an international mediator is also crucial as recent history has taught us that gentleman agreements have no place in Kenyan politics.

The position thus far

• Kibaki - open to forming government of national unity
• Raila - not averse to coalition government

There has been movement from both parties but from the above analysis it is clear that there is still some way to go before we can arrive at an acceptable solution.

I believe that given their current positions Raila does not have a lot he can offer and a lot rests on Kibaki demonstrating that Kenya is more important than his personal ambitions. He has disappointed in this regard since the announcement of disputed poll results on 30 December 2007.
Will he salvage a bit of his reputation? I am hopeful but skeptical.

Kenya - what went wrong?

The Crisis

I am very disappointed by the fact that as a fence-sitting Kenyan, I kept telling ODM and PNU supporters I was in a no lose situation since I was going to be happy with either candidate. Kibaki would continue the half-hearted shake up of things which I could live with while Raila would offer a more radical shake up which I would be happier with but was a bit of gamble since I wasn't sure whether it would all be positive.

The Irony of it is that I feel that for people like myself who were nearly indifferent we have seen our country set back in many different ways whilst ODM supporters can claim victory in Parliament and PNU can claim victory over the Executive (in reality we know that there are no real victors).

I am still reeling from the mayhem that has followed the disputed elections back home. How did it come to this? I have my own theory but I think a catalogue of things/events have led to our current predicament; from land politics, campaign strategies & utterrances and ultimately the conduct of the elections to name but a few.

However despite how simplistic it may sound I strongly feel that our current dilemma can largely be summed in 3 letters - ECK.
I watched in bewilderment as what had by and large been a fairly free and fair election turned into an absolute farce. Even from a far-away country it all felt like someone was 'cooking' something to use Kivuitu's words. The simple question that I asked myself was.... if there were suspicions that someone was cooking something surely there had to be something that the ECK could do to at the very least to address what were clearly flagrant irregularities and calm down soaring temperatures all around the country.

But the ECK went ahead to declare a winner under circumstances which most people felt it was unclear who the winner was (Kivuitu has subsequently admitted as much) and in so doing plunged the country into chaos.

Leaders - stand up and be counted

It is in times of crisis that leadership qualities are put to the test. To my mind both sides have failed at this crucial moment.

Kibaki & PNU

I was shocked beyond belief when after the shambolic conduct of the elections:

-Kibaki was quickly sworn in at a ceremony that any half decent person would be embarrassed of.
-Police officers were deployed all over potential hot spots.
-Live broadcasts were banned

These acts illustrate a number of things key among them:
-It is not inconceivable that Kibaki was anticipating the win since if Raila had emerged victorious I wouldn't think the swearing in ceremony would have been quite as swift.
-Kibaki was very much aware that there was going to be trouble in opposition strongholds.
-Banning live broadcasts was a double edged sword and my only thought at the time was we are back to the dark old days (though given the recklessness of our politicians, curtailing hate messages was paramount)

The activities that followed the announcement of Kibaki's victory further exacerbated the mess that the ECK had created by failing to address the irregularities before announcing the results.
Being aware of the potential problems Kibaki failed the leadership test by choosing a course of action that was undoubtedly going to worsen the situation.

After going down this path Kibaki further failed to lead by locking himself behind state house gates while the country was up in flames. Might he have been more pro-active and got out reconciliatory messages as well as visiting affected areas? This may have been too much to expect of Kibaki given his record over the 5 years of his first term (as far as I'm aware he is still planning to do this....over 486 dead & 250,000 displaced and still counting).

Raila and ODM

As observed above there were clear irregularities and ODM were entitled to cry foul. ODM cannot however adopt a holier than thou attitude since it would appear irregularities were not one-sided.

In my assessment ODM were wrong in claiming victory before the election and during the tallying of votes (which was predictably countered by PNU). They simply seemed to anticipate only one outcome - an ODM win.

Following the lack of leadership on Kibaki's & PNU's part the ball fell squarely in Raila's and ODM's court.
Riots had already started in ODM strongholds well before the result was announced. I would be the first to concede that the first few hours after the announcement of Kibaki's victory and subsequent swearing in were too confused and tense, but fortunately the ODM leadership had the whole night to sleep over the matter.

The morning after, ODM leaders should have shown leadership by leading their supporters in peaceful demonstrations. Instead they resorted to issuing press releases in Nairobi whilst their constituencies were engulfed in flames. If there had been more willing to act like Jirongo did and dissuade their supporters from senseless mayhem, a lot of lives & property could have been saved and fewer people would be homeless. Furthermore Raila and ODM would have emerged out of this crisis with greater public support and fence sitters like myself would have almost undoubtedly been won over (I must concede that I am not sure whether Kibaki would have conceded much to peaceful demonstrations; but then what is more important peace and lives of Kenyans or the presidency?)

We may disagree on who should shoulder most of the blame for our current quandary but to my mind both camps have at our time of greatest need failed to offer the very thing they aspire to - leadership.