As highlighted in my earlier post at this time of crisis, leadership has been in short supply on both sides. I will not ask for what they have proved incapable of, but to demand like every concerned kenyan that the politicians find a political solution to the crisis.
What are the options:
Retally votes
- had Kiviuitu & Co had an iota of sense the whole crisis would have been pre-empted.
- had Kibaki been a real leader with interests of Kenya at heart he would have pushed for this when it was a realistic solution.
To even suggest it now is lunacy.
Re-run of presidential election
This would go a long way in resolving the current crisis and is favoured by ODM but
- PNU will only accept this if ordered by the courts (well most read 'will never happen')
- What of all the misplaced people? Most of them have lost everything bar the clothes they were wearing (pretty significant at 250k and probably more - more than the winning margin).
- Who would preside over the elections? What changes would be made to ensure that the will of the people prevails?
- The cost of such an exercise when the economy has suffered so much due to post-election violence
- It is fair to assume that the voting would be along the same tribal lines and probably more polarised.
Given the above challenges I doubt whether a swift re-run of the presidential election is a viable solution. But more fundamentally, I do not believe that whatever the outcome of such a re-run the deep tribal divisions that have emerged would be significantly diminished.
Government of national unity
What does this entail? Since Kibaki set a precedent with an earlier government of national unity, it is not unreasonable to assume that he has in mind dishing out various posts to ODM.
Judging by the manner in which the NARC administration disintegrated, I am dubious about the potential for success here. Furthermore I do not think ODM would be agreeable to such an arrangement since it casts Kibaki as victor in a race which the winner is in doubt.
Given that the two candidates offered radically different visions of what path Kenya should take over the next five years, one does not need to a crystal ball to see the tugging that would ensue.
Coalition government
What form would this take? As far as I am aware we have no precedent in the Kenyan context and I think it would be dependent on what both parties find to be agreeable.
As unsatisfactory as this may seem, after passions have dissipated on both sides (as they have evidently done thus far) this may emerge as the best solution for Kenya as a nation.
My reason for saying this is because after the post-election violence we will have to pick up somewhere and rebuild our country. If this role is undertaken by ODM there will undoubtedly be constant antagonism from PNU ranks and vice versa. If either party takes over executive power unilaterally we are guaranteed 5 years of divisive politics and we will all be losers.
The most important thing is that the coalition agreement should be well crafted to ensure that it is robust enough to see us through what will undoubtedly be a trying 5 years for our country. The presence of an international mediator is also crucial as recent history has taught us that gentleman agreements have no place in Kenyan politics.
The position thus far
- Kibaki - open to forming government of national unity
- Raila - not averse to coalition government
There has been movement from both parties but from the above analysis it is clear that there is still some way to go before we can arrive at an acceptable solution.
I believe that given their current positions Raila does not have a lot he can offer and a lot rests on Kibaki demonstrating that Kenya is more important than his personal ambitions. He has disappointed in this regard since the announcement of disputed poll results on 30 December 2007.
Will he salvage a bit of his reputation? I am hopeful but skeptical.
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