The Crisis
I am very disappointed by the fact that as a fence-sitting Kenyan, I kept telling ODM and PNU supporters I was in a no lose situation since I was going to be happy with either candidate. Kibaki would continue the half-hearted shake up of things which I could live with while Raila would offer a more radical shake up which I would be happier with but was a bit of gamble since I wasn't sure whether it would all be positive.
The Irony of it is that I feel that for people like myself who were nearly indifferent we have seen our country set back in many different ways whilst ODM supporters can claim victory in Parliament and PNU can claim victory over the Executive (in reality we know that there are no real victors).
I am still reeling from the mayhem that has followed the disputed elections back home. How did it come to this? I have my own theory but I think a catalogue of things/events have led to our current predicament; from land politics, campaign strategies & utterrances and ultimately the conduct of the elections to name but a few.
However despite how simplistic it may sound I strongly feel that our current dilemma can largely be summed in 3 letters - ECK.
I watched in bewilderment as what had by and large been a fairly free and fair election turned into an absolute farce. Even from a far-away country it all felt like someone was 'cooking' something to use Kivuitu's words. The simple question that I asked myself was.... if there were suspicions that someone was cooking something surely there had to be something that the ECK could do to at the very least to address what were clearly flagrant irregularities and calm down soaring temperatures all around the country.
But the ECK went ahead to declare a winner under circumstances which most people felt it was unclear who the winner was (Kivuitu has subsequently admitted as much) and in so doing plunged the country into chaos.
Leaders - stand up and be counted
It is in times of crisis that leadership qualities are put to the test. To my mind both sides have failed at this crucial moment.
Kibaki & PNU
I was shocked beyond belief when after the shambolic conduct of the elections:
-Kibaki was quickly sworn in at a ceremony that any half decent person would be embarrassed of.
-Police officers were deployed all over potential hot spots.
-Live broadcasts were banned
These acts illustrate a number of things key among them:
-It is not inconceivable that Kibaki was anticipating the win since if Raila had emerged victorious I wouldn't think the swearing in ceremony would have been quite as swift.
-Kibaki was very much aware that there was going to be trouble in opposition strongholds.
-Banning live broadcasts was a double edged sword and my only thought at the time was we are back to the dark old days (though given the recklessness of our politicians, curtailing hate messages was paramount)
The activities that followed the announcement of Kibaki's victory further exacerbated the mess that the ECK had created by failing to address the irregularities before announcing the results.
Being aware of the potential problems Kibaki failed the leadership test by choosing a course of action that was undoubtedly going to worsen the situation.
After going down this path Kibaki further failed to lead by locking himself behind state house gates while the country was up in flames. Might he have been more pro-active and got out reconciliatory messages as well as visiting affected areas? This may have been too much to expect of Kibaki given his record over the 5 years of his first term (as far as I'm aware he is still planning to do this....over 486 dead & 250,000 displaced and still counting).
Raila and ODM
As observed above there were clear irregularities and ODM were entitled to cry foul. ODM cannot however adopt a holier than thou attitude since it would appear irregularities were not one-sided.
In my assessment ODM were wrong in claiming victory before the election and during the tallying of votes (which was predictably countered by PNU). They simply seemed to anticipate only one outcome - an ODM win.
Following the lack of leadership on Kibaki's & PNU's part the ball fell squarely in Raila's and ODM's court.
Riots had already started in ODM strongholds well before the result was announced. I would be the first to concede that the first few hours after the announcement of Kibaki's victory and subsequent swearing in were too confused and tense, but fortunately the ODM leadership had the whole night to sleep over the matter.
The morning after, ODM leaders should have shown leadership by leading their supporters in peaceful demonstrations. Instead they resorted to issuing press releases in Nairobi whilst their constituencies were engulfed in flames. If there had been more willing to act like Jirongo did and dissuade their supporters from senseless mayhem, a lot of lives & property could have been saved and fewer people would be homeless. Furthermore Raila and ODM would have emerged out of this crisis with greater public support and fence sitters like myself would have almost undoubtedly been won over (I must concede that I am not sure whether Kibaki would have conceded much to peaceful demonstrations; but then what is more important peace and lives of Kenyans or the presidency?)
We may disagree on who should shoulder most of the blame for our current quandary but to my mind both camps have at our time of greatest need failed to offer the very thing they aspire to - leadership.
I am very disappointed by the fact that as a fence-sitting Kenyan, I kept telling ODM and PNU supporters I was in a no lose situation since I was going to be happy with either candidate. Kibaki would continue the half-hearted shake up of things which I could live with while Raila would offer a more radical shake up which I would be happier with but was a bit of gamble since I wasn't sure whether it would all be positive.
The Irony of it is that I feel that for people like myself who were nearly indifferent we have seen our country set back in many different ways whilst ODM supporters can claim victory in Parliament and PNU can claim victory over the Executive (in reality we know that there are no real victors).
I am still reeling from the mayhem that has followed the disputed elections back home. How did it come to this? I have my own theory but I think a catalogue of things/events have led to our current predicament; from land politics, campaign strategies & utterrances and ultimately the conduct of the elections to name but a few.
However despite how simplistic it may sound I strongly feel that our current dilemma can largely be summed in 3 letters - ECK.
I watched in bewilderment as what had by and large been a fairly free and fair election turned into an absolute farce. Even from a far-away country it all felt like someone was 'cooking' something to use Kivuitu's words. The simple question that I asked myself was.... if there were suspicions that someone was cooking something surely there had to be something that the ECK could do to at the very least to address what were clearly flagrant irregularities and calm down soaring temperatures all around the country.
But the ECK went ahead to declare a winner under circumstances which most people felt it was unclear who the winner was (Kivuitu has subsequently admitted as much) and in so doing plunged the country into chaos.
Leaders - stand up and be counted
It is in times of crisis that leadership qualities are put to the test. To my mind both sides have failed at this crucial moment.
Kibaki & PNU
I was shocked beyond belief when after the shambolic conduct of the elections:
-Kibaki was quickly sworn in at a ceremony that any half decent person would be embarrassed of.
-Police officers were deployed all over potential hot spots.
-Live broadcasts were banned
These acts illustrate a number of things key among them:
-It is not inconceivable that Kibaki was anticipating the win since if Raila had emerged victorious I wouldn't think the swearing in ceremony would have been quite as swift.
-Kibaki was very much aware that there was going to be trouble in opposition strongholds.
-Banning live broadcasts was a double edged sword and my only thought at the time was we are back to the dark old days (though given the recklessness of our politicians, curtailing hate messages was paramount)
The activities that followed the announcement of Kibaki's victory further exacerbated the mess that the ECK had created by failing to address the irregularities before announcing the results.
Being aware of the potential problems Kibaki failed the leadership test by choosing a course of action that was undoubtedly going to worsen the situation.
After going down this path Kibaki further failed to lead by locking himself behind state house gates while the country was up in flames. Might he have been more pro-active and got out reconciliatory messages as well as visiting affected areas? This may have been too much to expect of Kibaki given his record over the 5 years of his first term (as far as I'm aware he is still planning to do this....over 486 dead & 250,000 displaced and still counting).
Raila and ODM
As observed above there were clear irregularities and ODM were entitled to cry foul. ODM cannot however adopt a holier than thou attitude since it would appear irregularities were not one-sided.
In my assessment ODM were wrong in claiming victory before the election and during the tallying of votes (which was predictably countered by PNU). They simply seemed to anticipate only one outcome - an ODM win.
Following the lack of leadership on Kibaki's & PNU's part the ball fell squarely in Raila's and ODM's court.
Riots had already started in ODM strongholds well before the result was announced. I would be the first to concede that the first few hours after the announcement of Kibaki's victory and subsequent swearing in were too confused and tense, but fortunately the ODM leadership had the whole night to sleep over the matter.
The morning after, ODM leaders should have shown leadership by leading their supporters in peaceful demonstrations. Instead they resorted to issuing press releases in Nairobi whilst their constituencies were engulfed in flames. If there had been more willing to act like Jirongo did and dissuade their supporters from senseless mayhem, a lot of lives & property could have been saved and fewer people would be homeless. Furthermore Raila and ODM would have emerged out of this crisis with greater public support and fence sitters like myself would have almost undoubtedly been won over (I must concede that I am not sure whether Kibaki would have conceded much to peaceful demonstrations; but then what is more important peace and lives of Kenyans or the presidency?)
We may disagree on who should shoulder most of the blame for our current quandary but to my mind both camps have at our time of greatest need failed to offer the very thing they aspire to - leadership.
3 comments:
Interesting and very concilliatory analysis of the crisis.
There is something fishy about the results. Worst of all, Kibaki's behaviour shouws bad faith and an attempt to preempt a decision. It seems to me, that Kibaki lost fair and square is attempting to maintain his position by forcing ODM into a 'so called' Gov't of National Unity.
This kind of bad faith will make such a solution ultimately unravel and lead to further complications for kenya. In any case, it seems to me that Kibaki's position is untenable save he wins a re-run preseidential election.
Tsatsu
A re-run means he's out as he'll have served his 2 terms.
@maua I've heard that argument but to my mind ODM cannot have their cake and eat it at the same time.
If we are going to be legalistic then by the same token a re-run is not possible without court intervention (the popular PNU line)
So if PNU were to agree to a re-run (ahem) thereby dropping their legalistic approach by then ODM would also have to drop that 2 terms line. Would you not agree?
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